The article highlights how the rapid adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonists—potent medications now commonly prescribed for weight loss and diabetes—has created major disruptions in life insurance underwriting by undermining traditional mortality prediction models. These drugs can yield swift and dramatic improvements in key health metrics such as BMI, cholesterol, and blood sugar, making users appear lower-risk on paper. However, a large proportion of patients discontinue GLP-1s within a year, quickly regaining weight and related health risks, which insurers’ static, point-in-time models cannot capture. This has led to a "mortality slippage" phenomenon where approximately one in six new life insurance policies is now mispriced due to inaccurate long-term risk assessment.
In response, insurance companies are experimenting with more detailed application questions targeting medication-driven weight changes and are considering stricter risk buffers or even outright denials for certain applicants. Still, the article suggests the most effective mitigation lies in improving patient adherence to GLP-1s, since staying on the medications sustains health improvements and reduces mortality risk over time. Drawing on analogies from statin therapy, the piece emphasizes that simple changes, such as prescribing 90-day refills or implementing basic reminder systems, can notably enhance adherence and stabilize insurer risk pools. Insurers are exploring new partnerships and care management strategies as the financial implications of this trend deepen, especially with generic GLP-1s on the horizon.
Hacker News commenters engage in lively debate about the tension between health innovation and insurance risk modeling, frequently noting that the apparent health "mirage" created by short-term medication use challenges the actuarial precision insurance companies are known for. Many express concern about the sustainability of current underwriting practices, pointing to the sharp rise in mispriced policies as a financial time bomb. The community also highlights practical solutions—such as better tracking of medication adherence and simple behavioral interventions—while some reflect humorously on the historic image of underwriters as "undertakers" now outfoxed by medical advances. Overall, reactions range from technical skepticism to cautious optimism that insurers can adapt using smarter data collection and improved patient engagement tactics.